How we pick

We read what the people covering a game are saying, and compare it with what the betting line says. When the coverage leans hard one way and the price hasn't caught up, that's a pick. Otherwise it's a Pass. Every pick goes on the record, wins and losses alike.

1. What we read

For every game we cover (NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, MLB and NHL), we gather what's been published about it:

• Beat writers and local outlets who cover the teams every day
• National sports news
• Insiders and reporters on X and Bluesky
• Official injury reports, and the NHL's confirmed starting goalies
• Betting splits: the share of bets and of money on each side

2. Picks and grades

A side is a pick only when it has a good chance to hit and the price pays more than we think it should. Picks are graded A to D, A strongest. A Long shot is a side that loses more often than not but whose price pays enough to be worth it. Everything else is a Pass. Most games are Passes, and that's the point: we only pick when the coverage and the price disagree. Every card is checked against the latest price through the day, and opening a card shows how its pick moved and why.

We pick moneylines and spreads only: no totals, props or parlays.

3. How we grade ourselves

• The last read before kickoff counts. Each game is graded on the last pick we published before it started, at the odds posted then, against the final score.
• One unit, every pick. Profit and ROI are a flat unit at the posted odds: no sizing that flatters the winners.
• Closing line value. For each pick we show whether the price moved toward it between posting and kickoff. Beating the closing line more than half the time is the earliest sign of a real edge, long before wins and losses settle down.
• Every pick, every Pass. The record lists each pick with the time it was posted, and counts the games we read and passed on.
• Nothing changes after kickoff. A pick's grade and result are final once the game starts. When we change how picks are made, the change is dated and versioned, and the new version's picks join the same record (how the method changes). Games from before the record restarted on Oct 14, 2026 are shown as a labeled backtest, not mixed into the record. Factual errors are handled by our corrections policy.

4. How the method changes

The method keeps improving. Day to day we add sources and sharpen how the coverage is read. Changes to how picks are made or graded come as a numbered version, dated below. Every pick keeps the version that made it, and the record never restarts: a new version's picks join the same record, and the record shows each version's results side by side once there's more than one. When we test a change on past games, the result is shown as a labeled backtest, never added to the record.

Version	Since	What changed
9	Oct 13, 2026	A pick needs a strong push from the coverage. Each game is graded on its last read before kickoff. A read days before kickoff is an early pick, and since Oct 14 its grade shows and moves with the news; what the record grades didn't change. The public record restarted on Oct 14, 2026, with this version. A fix on Oct 15: every card now stays current, re-rated at the new price each hour between reads.

Versions before 9 ran before the public record restarted and aren't on it.

5. What we don't do

• We don't take money from sportsbooks for sending you to them.
• We don't sell "locks" or guarantees. Even a good pick loses often.
• We don't pick totals, props or parlays.

Our analysis is drafted with AI tools and reviewed by a person. For entertainment and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Bet only where legal and only what you can afford to lose. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.